Photovoltaic banks' performance in the first half of the year is more than satisfactory. How will the future go?

On the 19th, the "Photovoltaic Industry Development Review of the First Half of 2017 and Seminar on Formal Prospects for the Second Half of the Year" held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held in Beijing Wanshou Hotel.

On the 19th, the "Photovoltaic Industry Development Review of the First Half of 2017 and Seminar on Formal Prospects for the Second Half of the Year" held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held in Beijing Wanshou Hotel. The leaders of the Ministry of Industry, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Finance, the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the General Hydropower Engineering Institute, the State Grid Energy Research Institute, the Institute of Electrical Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the General Electric Power Planning Institute, and the Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Equipment attended the meeting and were concerned about the current industry. Report on hot issues.

Content of this article: According to Xing Yiteng, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, he made a speech. The content is live recording, without confirmation by the spokesperson. The viewpoint is for reference only and has nothing to do with the service unit.

In the first half of the year, China's cumulative installed PV capacity was approximately 101.82 GW, with an increase of approximately 24 GW and approximately 7 GW in distribution. In the first half of the year, the overall national abandonment of 7% was a drop of 5% from last year, and Xinjiang in Gansu Province was down more than 10%. The national abandonment of light has greatly improved. Mainly due to a 7% increase in electricity in the first half of the year. Second, the issue of limited power consumption and abandonment has risen to a national strategy. The resolution of new energy consumption has been written into government work reports, including the Energy Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission and power grid companies. . In addition, the total photovoltaic generation in the first half of the year increased by 80%.

The achievements of the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year can be summarized as: Worries greater than joy

1. The subsidies for new energy sources such as photovoltaics are under tremendous pressure. Due to the explosive growth in the scale of PV, it is expected that by the end of the year, more than 105 GW will be set for the Thirteen Five target. If 100GW is profitable, the annual demand subsidies will be about 50 billion yuan, and the demand for 20 years will be 1 trillion yuan. According to relevant comrades of the Ministry of Finance, at present, new energy (wind, biomass, photovoltaic, etc.) has been allocated a total of 300 billion yuan. Due to the rapid development of new energy resources, the scale of renewable energy funds is stretched. At present, the Ministry of Finance, together with related departments, has drafted relevant recommendations and submitted them to the State Council for further adjustments to the methods and methods of subsidies. The general idea is to promote market-oriented development. The competition reduces the cost of power generation and promotes the development of the industry.

2. Strictly limit the management of scale: In 2016, China issued approximately 22.6 GW of general photovoltaic power plant indicators. The leader is about 5.5GW. PV is about 5.16GW. Total more than 33GW. The 630 rush-installed due to various factors such as indicators and price cuts. According to the 105GW scale calculation at the end of the year, and the provinces reporting 150GW of PV lineup in the 13th five-year plan, the new PV scale in the next three years should be controlled at about 45GW, with an annual installed capacity of 15GW. In the next step, the National Energy Administration will strictly follow the development indicators of the 13th Five-Year Energy Plan reported by the provinces and strictly control and plan the release of future indicators. The main suggestions are: 1. Refer to the wind power warning mechanism and publicize the installed PV power in each province, and give early warning to PV investment in hotspots. 2. Strictly require power access.

3. New policy aspects in the second half of the year

3.1. Issued the third batch of leader base indicators. The main concerns are:

3.1.1 Competition. In the past, the frontrunners’ base price cuts were significant, but individual leader projects did not meet expectations. The next step will be to study overseas photovoltaic competition projects such as Dubai, Mexico and other photovoltaic power price competition mechanisms. The feasibility and necessary factors for the cancellation of subsidized photovoltaic power prices in China were carried out.

3.1.2 Reduce the overall cost of the base. The third batch of leaders will comprehensively consider the integrated costs such as grid access, land tax, and external construction and make them publicly available to investment companies.

3.1.3 Introduce super runners such as HIT and IBC. Leading technology applications have forced industry technology advances.

3.2. Introduce a pilot trading policy for distributed photovoltaics.

Since the State Department encouraged distributed development in 2013, distribution has been tepid. Until 2017, distributed, especially in the household market, broke out. According to incomplete statistics, the number of residents in 2017 increased by 700%. In the next step, the Energy Bureau will launch a distributed pilot trading policy to promote the development of distributed markets.

3.3. Research on Starting Agricultural Photovoltaic, Household Photovoltaic, and Abandoning Light

3.3.1 Agricultural Photovoltaic: As the measurement standards for photovoltaic agricultural land use do not agree with each other, the Energy Bureau communicates with the Ministry of Land and Resources. Photovoltaic agriculture related standards will be introduced. In the future, photovoltaic agricultural projects will be dealt with separately. Photovoltaic agricultural electricity problems will be based on evidence.

3.3.2 Household PV Standards: The household market has broken out, but the household development and installation have been mixed. The next energy bureau will start the construction of household standards as soon as possible to guide and regulate the market for households.

3.3.3 Abandoned light: Improve the abandonment rate and related calculation problems. For example, in the first half of 2017, the number of hours of electricity generation in Jilin and Liaoning was 1,100 hours, a far cry from the previous 1500 or even individual 1700 hours. Through understanding, due to the rush-installed projects in 2016, the new project has a high failure rate, which has led to a drop in the annual abandonment rate. The next step will be to study more scientifically accurate methods for calculating the rate of abandoned light.

Future perspectives on the photovoltaic industry:

1. Firmly develop confidence. Photovoltaics is not only an important national development strategy, but also an important strategy for the development of global new energy. The Paris climate agreement and the One Belt and One Road all provide a strong guarantee for the industry. It is estimated that by 2020, the global installed capacity will be 500 GW. In 2025, most countries will have a fair price for photovoltaics, and there will be huge market space in the future.

2. During the period of 12.5 in China, the photovoltaic industry created profits of approximately 200 billion yuan and created 1 million jobs. In the period of 13,5, China's photovoltaic industry has fully grown into a world leader and will continue to lead the world in the future.

3. Innovative development: At present, China's crystalline silicon is close to 100%, and product homogeneity is serious. The next step will be to guide and recommend the diversification of industries.

4. Subsidy is insufficient and it is necessary to reach parity as soon as possible.

4.1 Further reduce costs through technology upgrades.

4.2 Further reduce costs by increasing system efficiency. For example, applications such as tracking racks and string inverters are supported.

4.3 Develop new business models to reduce costs.

5, need to improve and improve

5.1 Self-discipline development: Especially for the development of household photovoltaics, self-discipline is required.

5.2 Photovoltaic Agriculture: Some agricultural photovoltaic projects have no greenhouses or even use cultivated land.

5.3 Scalping Indicators: Continue to crack down on the issue of resale targets.

5.4 Electricity Safety: A large number of newly added photovoltaic power sources will definitely affect the safe and stable operation of the power. The next step will be strict with the State Grid.

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